Wednesday, November 7, 2012

At 8:25 PM Media Was Going To Call Wisconsin for Romney

VOICES has it from a reliable source that was "in the trenches" last night here in Wisconsin that Obama's campaign headquarters was making phone calls after the polls closed to assess the situation on the ground here.  At 8:25 p.m., according to the Obama campaign, the media was "leaning to a call for Romney".  A conversation ensued as to how this could be -- the campaign stated this was done by extrapolating exit polls. 

Obama's campaign said they needed data from the last 2 unreported wards which were not available yet -- the call for Romney was never made and by 9:15 pm the Badger State was called for Obama even though websites tracking vote tabulations at the time indicated Romney was still leading the early returns.  More after the jump.

Exactly what this means is not yet clear, though it is another indication that exit polls, entirely owned by a small group of multinational media corporate interests, play a critical role in what the public is told about elections.  In this case, the public was not told that these media interests were ready to announce Wisconsin for Romney.

What prevented them from doing so?  Makes interesting speculation, doesn't it?

At the time our source spoke to the Obama campaign, 2 important wards that everyone expected would go heavily for Obama had not yet reported -- they were still counting votes -- all eyes were waiting for those results.

And while the returns from those two wards did skew extremely heavily for Obama, they did not contain enough votes to mathematically justify the decision to award Wisconsin to either side.

Richard Charnin, a highly qualified quantitative computer programmer, exactly modeled and predicted the final outcomes IF Florida is finally determined to go for Obama.  Right now, the "official" tally in the electoral college is 303 Obama, 206 Romney -- Florida has not been awarded to anyone --it has 29 electoral votes.

So if Florida goes to the democratic ticket, Obama wins 332 to 206 in the electoral votes -- just as VOICES reported Richard Charnin explained to us. In his forecast model, he shows BOTH the True Vote (Obama 380 EV) AND the recorded vote (Obama 332 snapshot/321 expected). 
Obama has 321 expected electoral votes (see the definition of the expected value below) and a 99% win probability (based on 497 electoral vote wins out of 500 trial simulations). He will win the popular recorded vote by 51-48%, a 69-65 million vote margin.
But the recorded vote is not the True Vote. The True Vote is never the same as the recorded vote.

The True Vote Model indicates Obama would have approximately 371 EV, a 55% share and win by a 74-59 million vote margin – in a fraud-free election.
VOICES has talked to Richard Charnin about this and informed him that the media, based on exit polls, was leaning to call the state for Romney before 8:30 pm.  How many other states could have potentially been called for Romney in this manner?

What does it mean when statistical analysis indicates a large victory for one side if we had open, fair, free, transparent and verifiable elections and then exactly predicts a "fraud factor" which adjusts the true vote to expected values given systematic fraud which has occurred in every U.S. election since 1988.

Our media cannot have it both ways -- either exit polls contain valid and important information or they don't.  The media, understands the accuracy and validity of exit polls, but they don't want the public to understand this.  When it suits its purposes, the media indirectly tells the public that it has full-confidence in its exit polls -- they do this each time they make early calls about expected vote totals.

So the same media interests that rely on exit polls also tells the public that this data is not accurate and needs to be "adjusted" -- actually corrupting the data to match unverifiable numbers that roll out of proprietary machines.  This leaves most Americans to dismiss exit polls -- even though the results they follow and accept on election night are entirely based on the same exit polls.

Something is still wrong with America's elections -- just because we did not see a coup-d'etat in 2012 -- the theft of the White House from a sitting administration -- does not mean that America has honest elections.

Please do not uncritically accept the mainstream media's narrative -- democracy demands free, open, fair, transparent, and verifiable elections.

Just because the candidate most of our readers would prefer won last nigh'ts election does not mean things are hunky-dory. After all, Richard Charnin exactly called the recorded  electoral vote totals (if Obama gets Florida) with this simple equation:

Recorded Vote = True Vote + Fraud factor!`

Does it make sense that in June 2012, Scott Walker won a recall with an 8 point margin and 5 months later the results dramatically swing to give Barack Obama more than a 5 point margin?

This means we saw a swing from republican to democrat of almost 14 points in a 5 month period.

This. Does. Not. Pass. The. Smell. Test.

Remember, no republican presidential nominee has won the Badger State since Ronald Reagan in 1984.

We will continue to follow election integrity issues in Wisconsin and across America and encourage our readers to do likewise.  There is obviously more work to be done here.

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